# Statistics Assignment

Statistics Assignment

Data:
Requirements:
1. Create a line chart and identify the time series components in the time series. Then, compute
the correlation between the time series variable and time using either the =CORREL() function or
the correlation tool in the date analysis toolpack. Justify your answer. (Hint: it should be some
combination of average or base, cycle, trend, and random variation.)
2. Create as many forecast as possible on the historical data using each of the methods below.
a. 3-period moving average.
c. Exponential smoothing forecast with alpha = 0.8.
d. Trend forecast (whether or not there is a trend). Use the =TREND() function in Excel.

IMPORTANT NOTES: When computing your moving average forecasts, do not use the Moving
Average Data Analysis tool. This tool will not give you a valid forecast because it uses the
current period in the computation. Instead, use the AVERAGE() function. Also, for both the ES
and the MA forecasts, do not include the period you are forecasting in the history you are using
to compute the forecast.
3. Starting with the fourth period, compute the MAE for each forecasting model, and choose the
best model based on this analysis.
4. Using the best model, make a new forecast for the next period.
Deliverables
have completed the assignment, post your Excel file on the HW 4 assignment dropbox.
Hints: In this assignment, you are using your entire history to build good models and to test the
forecasting skill of the models. Once you have computed the forecasts and calculated the MAEs
for each model, you will choose the most accurate model on historical data to make a future
forecast. The moving average forecasts will begin at period 4, the ES forecasts will begin at
period 2 (with the naïve starting value), and the trend forecasts will begin at period 1. For
consistency, you should compute the MAEs for periods 3-98 for each. the first draft is by
Wednesday

 Date Total Instances of Fraud 10/29/2019 428 10/30/2019 314 10/31/2019 429 11/1/2019 474 11/2/2019 443 11/3/2019 462 11/4/2019 361 11/5/2019 458 11/6/2019 410 11/7/2019 595 11/8/2019 396 11/9/2019 511 11/10/2019 508 11/11/2019 447 11/12/2019 463 11/13/2019 321 11/14/2019 628 11/15/2019 340 11/16/2019 363 11/17/2019 438 11/18/2019 369 11/19/2019 430 11/20/2019 338 11/21/2019 637 11/22/2019 352 11/23/2019 468 11/24/2019 366 11/25/2019 440 11/26/2019 343 11/27/2019 504 11/28/2019 657 11/29/2019 514 11/30/2019 343 12/1/2019 458 12/2/2019 484 12/3/2019 428 12/4/2019 456 12/5/2019 609 12/6/2019 493 12/7/2019 477 12/8/2019 442 12/9/2019 457 12/10/2019 369 12/11/2019 459 12/12/2019 674 12/13/2019 378 12/14/2019 394 12/15/2019 408 12/16/2019 385 12/17/2019 511 12/18/2019 353 12/19/2019 619 12/20/2019 480 12/21/2019 529 12/22/2019 509 12/23/2019 388 12/24/2019 359 12/25/2019 430 12/26/2019 610 12/27/2019 439 12/28/2019 480 12/29/2019 378 12/30/2019 446 12/31/2019 438 1/1/2020 484 1/2/2020 625 1/3/2020 446 1/4/2020 533 1/5/2020 413 1/6/2020 469 1/7/2020 534 1/8/2020 516 1/9/2020 577 1/10/2020 493 1/11/2020 525 1/12/2020 397 1/13/2020 533 1/14/2020 420 1/15/2020 426 1/16/2020 569 1/17/2020 417 1/18/2020 453 1/19/2020 427 1/20/2020 458 1/21/2020 455 1/22/2020 559 1/23/2020 652 1/24/2020 414 1/25/2020 426 1/26/2020 426 1/27/2020 582 1/28/2020 471 1/29/2020 569 1/30/2020 631 1/31/2020 484 2/1/2020 549 2/2/2020 408

The post Statistics Assignment appeared first on Assignmentstutors.com.